A professor at University of Texas at Austin has modeled the potential outcomes for Austin-area hospitals depending on the strictness of social intervention measures.
The model, developed by Lauren Ancel Meyers, shows that the virus could overwhelm Austin-area hospitals even if residents take modest steps toward social distancing.
From UT News:
Preliminary results from the local analysis were shared with Austin city officials and are being made public in a report today in advance of scientific peer review due to the time-sensitive nature of the subject. The models clarify that without stringent social distancing, COVID-19 may overwhelm hospital capacities in the Austin-Round Rock area by this summer.
Initial simulations of the spread of COVID-19 in the area, using UT’s pandemic model, showed that reducing daily contacts in the community by 50% – or even 75% – may not be sufficient to prevent an unmanageable surge in COVID-19 hospitalizations in the five-county area (Travis, Williamson, Bastrop, Caldwell and Hays). However, the model suggests that reducing daily contacts between people by 90% “flattened the curve” enough to ensure that enough hospital beds, ventilators and other resources could be available in the Austin-Round Rock area during the next few months.