A new tool from the University of Washington predicts when COVID-19 cases may peak in all 50 states, and what those peaks may look like in terms of deaths and hospital resource use.
Although the forecasts already assumes a high level of protective measures like social distancing, the reuslts could change as states implement stricter interventions.
Study author Christopher J.L. Murray explains the model’s findings:
In addition to a large number of deaths from COVID-19, the epidemic in the US will place a load well beyond the current capacity of hospitals to manage, especially for ICU care. These estimates can help inform the development and implementation of strategies to mitigate this gap, including reducing non-COVID-19 demand for services and temporarily increasing system capacity. These are urgently needed given that peak volumes are estimated to be only three weeks away. The estimated excess demand on hospital systems is predicated on the enactment of social distancing measures in all states that have not done so already within the next week and maintenance of these measures throughout the epidemic, emphasizing the importance of implementing, enforcing, and maintaining these measures to mitigate hospital system overload and prevent deaths.